Flames is a computer simulation model developed by CSIRO and Tropical Savannas Management CRC that enables the results of the Kapalga fire experiment to be extrapolated to other situations. It allows key issues in fire management, such as fire frequency, fire timing, and patterns of fire spread, to be investigated without the need for expensive and time-consuming field trials. A soil water budget using daily rainfall is part of the model and allows the effects of fire management to be examined for areas with different soil types and different rainfall patterns.

Flames simulates the effects of fires on a population of trees over time. The user of the model sets how often fires occur and in what months. Rates of fire spread are calculated from the weather at the time of the fire, and together with simulated fuel loads determine the fire intensity. When a fire occurs, the survival of individual trees depends on the species, their size and the fire intensity. Data on tree water-use interacts with daily rainfall patterns and soil water storage to set the ultimate limits for tree density, and provide a water budget.

We are still testing the model and calibrating it to ensure that it is producing reliable results that are consistent with observed responses of vegetation to changes in fire regimes, soil types and climate. Our aim is to use the model to better understand how different fire regimes affect vegetation, greenhouse gas emissions and water movement across the savannas of north Australia. We also plan to develop the model as an educational tool that can be widely used to help people better understand the long term effects of different fire management regimes on vegetation.